ACTL30070: Actuarial Modelling III - Time Series Analysis - Statistics Assignment Help

Assignment Task:

1 Learning outcomes 

The assignment aims particularly at assessing the course learning outcomes 

1. Apply relevant pre-requisite knowledge of mathematics, probability theory and statistics in the solution of a range of practical problems;

2. Describe and apply the main concepts and properties underlying the analysis of several time series models.

The task is exploratory in nature, and requires data analysis and communication skills. It is mandatory to use the software R for data analysis. 

2 Data analysis report 

Note that the following will be assessed using the rubric that is provided at the end. 

2.1 Task 

The task of this assignment is very free. Essentially, you are asked to demonstrate the use of the techniques seen in Module 7 and 8 using real data sets. 

In this assignment, you are required to choose a time series data set theme (we provide two suggestions below, but these are not mandatory), explore the data (visually and using the techniques seen in Module 7 and 8), and perform some analysis leading to some conclusions. In particular, it will probably be most interesting to explore the relationship between different time series, and comment on the result in the context of the theme. 

We expect that the best assignments will focus on one nice story (which will only be identified/clarified through some exploratory data analysis before writing up the report), illustrated and documented using time series analysis. The report will need to be succinct (1000 words—more details below) and to the point, with good justifications backed by the time series analysis. 

2.2 Data sets 

The choice of data is free. However, there are many data sets on the internet, often in unwieldy and various formats, and you may find yourself spending a lot of time finding and cleaning data, with no guarantee that it will lead anywhere. For this reason, I have selected two data sets which I believe should be sufficient for the assignment.

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