Get Accounting Assignment Help at My Uni Papers

Internal Code: MAS5398

Accounting Assignment Help

Questions: A (i)Suppose you are on a TV game show, and you are given the choice of three doors. Behind one door is a brand new car, behind the others, nothing. You pick a door. The TV host, who knows what behind the doors, chooses another door and opens it to show you that it has nothing. Should you change your decision? Don’t think about this too deeply just yet. Do you feel (intuit?) that you should change your choice? Answer initially without researching the question. What is the thinking behind your answer? Conduct a survey of ten of your friends/colleagues to give their opinion. You may wish to provide them with a copy of the problem. A (ii) After you answer the first part of this question, search the Internet for the Monty Hall problem. Provide your own explanation of the correct solution. Why do so many get the wrong answer? Did you? B. A man goes to see his medical doctor to find out whether or not he has a deadly disease. The test is positive. The test is 95% accurate and one in one thousand men of his age has this disease. What is the probability he has the disease? He decides to seek a second opinion but the results are exactly the same. When this question was put to a group of student doctors, 80% of them answered “95%”. He now plans to sell up all his assets, tell his boss what he really thinks of her, quit his job on the spot and live in Bora Bora in the time he has left. Is this a rational decision? Explain. C. Suppose an urn contains 100 marbles, 65 red and 35 black. A marble is drawn at random from the urn and you are asked to guess what colour you believe the marble to be. The marble is then shown, replaced, and the urn contents again randomised. The aim is to maximise the number of correct guesses. Before reading any further, what strategy would you employ? What would you guess? Assume 4 red come out in a row. What would your next guess be? Why? Include a brief discussion of the gambler fallacy (Monte Carlo fallacy). D. Creatively discuss the rationality of human decision making using these and other examples. Use the Internet as a source (about 300 words for this section).